Climate Prediction Center's Outlook for June

By Rick Thoman
Alaska Climate Specialist
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy
International Arctic Research Center/University of Alaska
Fairbanks

The Climate Prediction Center, a part of the National Weather Service, is charged with producing outlooks for two weeks to a year in the future.
Unlike weather forecasts, weekly to seasonal outlooks are not for specific values, but instead are in relationship to normal (typically as 30-year period).
This month, the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for June across western Alaska favors neither above nor below normal temperatures or above or below normal precipitation. This does not mean that near normal is likely, but rather that overall there is not enough consistency in the forecast tools to favor a tilt toward above or below being more likely.
Over the past 118 years, June temperatures have ranged from 20°F in 1931 to 86°F in 2013.
However, the temperature has been in the 80s on only eight days in June. Historically, June was very rarely the warmest month of the summer due to the presence of at least some sea ice early in the month keeping Norton Sound water temperatures cold. In the 96 years between 1907 and 2002, June was the warmest month of the summer only three times.
But that has changed as Norton Sound waters warm earlier nowadays.
In the 22 years between 2003 and 20024, June has been the warmest month of the summer four times, including last year. Precipitation in June is usually higher than in May but still well below that of late summer and has exceeded three inches only four times in Nome’s long climate history (most recently in 1980).
Thunderstorm frequency increases over the inland Seward Peninsula as June progresses, and occasionally one of these storms will move across town.
A flurry of snow is not uncommon during the first days of June, though accumulating snow at low elevations is unusual. However, both 2021 and 2023 brought significant albeit short-lived accumulations right down to the beach.