Climate outlook for November

By Rick Thoman
Alaska Climate Specialist
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Preparedness
International Arctic Research Center/University of Alaska Fairbanks

The climate outlook for November from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has been released, and for western Alaska the outlook shows that above normal precipitation (total amount of rain and melted snow) is slightly favored for the month overall, but there's no tilt to favor either above or below normal temperatures.
For Nome, the daily normal high temperature in November drops from 29°F on the first, to 20°F by the end of the month. Normal daily low temperatures have an even larger dip, from 19°F on the first to 6°F on the 30th.
Since 1907, temperatures in Nome have varied from a high of 50°F on November 1, 1928 to a low of -39°F on November 30, 1948. That 1948 cold snap sent temperatures down into the 40s below in eastern Norton Sound communities.
Precipitation (rain plus melted snow) at Nome typically totals in the 0.75 inch to 1.5-inch range, but has varied between 4.39 inches in 1979, over half of which fell as rain, to 0.02 inches in 2012. In most years, Nome’s permanent winter snowpack is laid down in November (if not late October), though there have been a few times when the month ended with little or no snow on the tundra. Snowfall averages about 12 inches but has exceeded two feet four different times. In contrast, several very dry Novembers have seen less than an inch of snow.
Sea ice is very likely to arrive at Nome from the east some time during November, but the exact timing depends not only on temperatures but also the persistence of east to northeast winds.